“‘Absolutely a market bubble: Wall Street sounds the alarm on AI-driven boom as investors go all in After months of record gains in AI-linked stocks and corporate spending, concerns are mounting that the boom is starting to look like a bubble”. Yahoo Finance 10/14/2025
“We believe a boom may be on the horizon, driven by a favorable policy mix and a healthy consumer that should support earnings growth. While equity valuations are elevated, they are backed by healthy earnings and strong cash flows”. …Franklin Templeton The Long View: Bubble or Boom, October 10, 2025
“U.S. Army Plans to Power Bases with Tiny Nuclear Reactors (the Janus Program): The U.S. military is making one of its most significant pushes yet into modern nuclear power with a program to put small reactors on Army bases across much of the country where strained power grids can’t keep up with rising energy demands… Wall St Journal 10/14/2025
Where Are We, End of September 2025?
Boom, Bubble or Bust – this is the continuing debate through the world of investing. Of course it looks like a bubble. A boom is a period of growth supported by solid fundamentals, while a bubble implies a decoupling of fundamentals, fueled by speculation. Overriding the debate is the very fact that the stock market can remain irrational far longer than most other entities (exception: government entities). In addition to the foregoing, some of you may be experiencing professional and personal changes (e.g. retirement and larger net worth) that speak in favor of a less aggressive stance.
The above quote regarding nuclear energy is an example of solid fundamentals supporting opportunity. I began to follow the fund with symbol NLR and most of you own it now. Please let me know if somehow this violates your ethics or environmental views (many approve strongly, based on a view of it being “green”). Artificial intelligence DEMANDS increased energy consumption, and it seems to be a trend to be on board with. I noted that on Friday (10/10/2025) when the market averages dropped 2 – 3%, this fund held completely steady. I also would like to hear from you if you desire a more outsized allocation. I regard this as a very long-term hold.
This disparity in this month’s returns is once again a head scratcher, but it’s the world we live in. Certain technology stocks and funds returned over 5% but the dividend aristocrats lost money. We don’t even hold that fund but we view SOME diversification as necessary.
Dividends
I’m repeating last month’s declaration: our dividend funds continue to throw off healthy dividends, helping people to live on income. Eventually, lower interest rates may reduce dividends somewhat, but for now the credit funds are mostly pushing 10% rates.
Following is the performance of the market indexes and our funds in September:
| Sep-25 | |||
| S&P 500 | 3.53% | ||
| Nasdaq (technology) | 5.61% | ||
| Dow 30 | 1.87% | ||
| Morningstar US Mkt (all stocks) | 3.37% | ||
| Morningstar US Small Companies | 0.97% | ||
| 2 year Treasury YIELD (9/11/25) | 3.51% | ||
| 5 year Treasury YIELD (9/11/25) | 3.60% | ||
| FBCG | 5.27% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock ETF |
| NOBL | -1.15% | Dividend Aristocrats | stock ETF |
| RSP | 1.01% | Invesco S&P Equal Wt | stock ETF |
| VBR | 0.40% | Vanguard Small Cap Value | stock ETF |
| TMFC | 4.77% | Motley Fool 100 | stock ETF |
| QQQ | 5.38% | Invesco QQQ Nasdaq 100 | stock ETF |
| SPMO | 4.10% | S&P 500 Momentum | stock ETF |
| XSMO | 1.14% | Invesco Small cap Momentum | stock ETF |
| XMMO | 3.19% | Invesco Midcap Momentum | stock ETF |
| FBGRX | 5.23% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund |
| OBMCX | 3.09% | Oberweis Micro-Cap | stock mutual fund |
| FSLVX | 1.26% | Fidelity Large Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FSMVX | 0.39% | Fidelity Mid Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FCPVX | 0.52% | Fidelity Small Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| CPEFX | 1.94% | Cascade Private Capital | private equity mutual fund |
| BUCK | 0.42% | Simplify Stable Income | ETF Income Fund |
| CCLFX | 0.75% | Cliffwater Corporate Lending | income mutual fund |
| CELFX | 0.91% | Cliffwater Enhanced Lending | income mutual fund |
| CFRAX | 0.47% | Catalyst floating rate | income mutual fund |
| EIFAX | 0.47% | Eaton Vance floating rate | income mutual fund |
| FFRAX | 0.68% | Fidelity floating rate | income mutual fund |
| RNDLX | 0.75% | RiverNorth Strategic | income mutual fund |
| FAGIX | 1.85% | Fidelity Capital & Income | income mutual fund |
| Starwood REIT, class I | -0.60% | Aug* | real estate investment trust |
| Blackstone REIT, class I | 0.70% | Sep* | real estate investment trust |
| Fidelity Credit Fd, class I | 0.85% | Aug* | private lending trust |
| Blackstone Credit Fd, class I | 0.60% | Aug* | private lending trust |
| Blackrock Credit Fd, class I | 0.70% | Aug* | private lending trust |
(Courtesy morningstar.com)
* 1-month reporting lag
Following are your September investment results:
We should talk if you would like to review exactly where you stand or if we should consider a change. I am available at your convenience. I have Google Meet and Zoom in case you would like to do a video conference. Also, please consult your Fidelity statement for advisor fee information.
Best,