“‘Essentially, every Wall St Analyst is projecting the S&P 500 to increase in 2026”. John Mauldin Economics, 1/10/2026 [Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JP Morgan, BCA Research, Bank of America, Ned Davis Research, Goldman Sachs, Societe General, UBS Global, Fidelity, on and on and on…]
“The last time the S&P 500 rose four or more consecutive years was 2003 – 2007” ……. Morningstar.com and Yahoo Finance
Where Are We, End of December 2025 and the Year Ahead?
When everyone sits on one side of a boat, it is liable to tilt! The stock market requires a balance between buyers and sellers – an equilibrium. Be aware that the markets have had very solid up years in 2023, 24 and 25. On the other hand, 25 data points (years) is not exactly a large set of statistics, either.
I see geopolitical (as well as domestic) concerns that I think could be unsettling for the markets and I think that GENERALLY, 2026 will be a year where lower upside/lower volatility investments make more sense. Nothing is free, including upside potential. Of course, artificial intelligence holds the promise of creating new worlds of opportunity and the last 3 years are evidence of that. I simply do not see the likelihood of 2026 gains in the high teens or anything pushing 20%. So, if we see up-side limits in single digits or even 10%, why not approach that goal with more stable, conservative investments?
I really like the stability of the Cliffwater private funds, in a limited percentage, but before buying them in your accounts, I would like you to affirm (by reply email or phone) that you understand the more limited liquidity that they provide. You simply cannot buy on a Tuesday and sell on Wednesday. Liquidity could entail some period of months. HOWEVER, the flip side benefit is VERY stable dividends and share prices. Please read about them at https://www.cliffwaterfunds.com/about. They have tens of billions of dollars under management and a long successful history, so I trust that they plan for liquidity needs in a proper, well-thought-out manner.
Please read and reply back to me…….
The year ended with marginal gains and losses in both December and November.
Following is the performance of the market indexes and our funds in December:
(Courtesy morningstar.com)
| Dec-25 | |||||||
| S&P 500 | -0.05% | ||||||
| Nasdaq (technology) | -0.53% | ||||||
| Dow 30 | 0.73% | ||||||
| Morningstar US Mkt (all stocks) | -0.14% | ||||||
| Morningstar US Small Companies | 0.20% | ||||||
| 2 year Treasury YIELD | 3.47% | ||||||
| 5 year Treasury YIELD | 3.72% | ||||||
| FBCG | 0.26% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock ETF | ||||
| QQQ | -0.67% | Invesco QQQ Nasdaq 100 | stock ETF | ||||
| SPMO | -0.43% | S&P 500 Momentum | stock ETF | ||||
| XSMO | -2.15% | Invesco Small cap Momentum | stock ETF | ||||
| XMMO | -0.45% | Invesco Midcap Momentum | stock ETF | ||||
| TMFC | -0.11% | Motley Fool 100 | stock ETF | ||||
| VBR | 0.55% | Vanguard Small Cap Value | stock ETF | ||||
| RSP | 0.41% | Invesco S&P Equal Wt | stock ETF | ||||
| NOBL | -0.37% | Dividend Aristocrats | stock ETF | ||||
| NLR | -2.08% | Van Eck Nuclear | stock ETF | ||||
| FBGRX | 1.26% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund | ||||
| OBMCX | -0.40% | Oberweis Micro-Cap | stock mutual fund | ||||
| FSLVX | 1.50% | Fidelity Large Cap Value | stock mutual fund | ||||
| FSMVX | 1.40% | Fidelity Mid Cap Value | stock mutual fund | ||||
| FCPVX | -1.05% | Fidelity Small Cap Value | stock mutual fund | ||||
| CPEFX | 1.19% | Cliffwater/Cascade Private Capital | private equity mutual fund | ||||
| BUCK | 0.21% | Simplify Stable Income | ETF Income Fund | ||||
| CCLFX | 0.68% | Cliffwater Corporate Lending | private income mutual fund | ||||
| CELFX | 0.74% | Cliffwater Enhanced Lending | private income mutual fund | ||||
| CFRAX | 0.79% | Catalyst floating rate | income mutual fund | ||||
| EIFAX | 0.17% | Eaton Vance floating rate | income mutual fund | ||||
| FFRAX | 0.71% | Fidelity floating rate | income mutual fund | ||||
| RNDLX | -0.04% | RiverNorth Strategic | income mutual fund | ||||
| FAGIX | 1.05% | Fidelity Capital & Income | income mutual fund | ||||
| Starwood REIT, class I | 0.03% | Nov* | real estate investment trust | ||||
| Blackstone REIT, class I | 1.06% | Nov* | real estate investment trust | ||||
| Fidelity Credit Fd, class I | 0.12% | Nov* | private lending trust | ||||
| Blackstone Credit Fd, class I | 0.50% | Nov* | private lending trust | ||||
| Blackrock Credit Fd, class I | 0.78% | Nov* | private lending trust |
* 1-month reporting lag
We should talk if you would like to review exactly where you stand or if we should consider a change. I am available at your convenience. I have Google Meet and Zoom in case you would like to do a video conference. Also, please consult your Fidelity statement for advisor fee information.
Best,