“Economists exist to make weathermen look good” … unknown
“[Taking] COVID out of the picture, a catastrophic event not of economic origin, the US hasn’t seen a normal business-cycle recession since 2007–2009” … John Mauldin, Thoughts From The Frontline
“Tariffs, energy policy, immigration, deregulation and tax policy are at the top of investors’ minds” … Mohamed El-Erian, Yahoo Finance
Where Are We, End of Dec 2024 and post-Election?
First, let me say that I’m sorry that I did not provide the below review earlier in the month. I was in California the first part of the month.
The next 12 months should be full of surprises, both positive and negative. There are many wildcards this year. As I’ve been saying for the last few months, the stock market is very highly valued – maybe overvalued – by historical standards. And there is this recession thing floating in the air…. Whatever that might mean.
Personally, I feel there is a correction in our future – it almost has to happen – but it may not even be in 2025. That’s my “weather forecast” on the markets.
The way things break on the five items mentioned in the above quote may be bullish, but there are also concerns to the contrary.
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Following is the performance of our funds and the market indexes in Dec:
| Dec-24 | |||
| S&P 500 | -2.38% | ||
| Nasdaq (technology) | 0.55% | ||
| Dow 30 | -5.13% | ||
| NYSE Composite | -5.62% | ||
| Russell 2000 (small companies) | -8.26% | ||
| US Aggregate Bond | -1.54% | ||
| SVOL | -2.92% | Simplify Volatility Premium | ETF |
| FBCG | 0.66% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | ETF |
| NOBL | -7.69% | Dividend Aristocrats | ETF |
| RSP | -6.28% | Invesco S&P Equal Wt | ETF |
| VBR | -7.83% | Vanguard Small Cap Value | ETF |
| TMFC | 0.61% | Motley Fool 100 | ETF |
| QQQ | 0.45% | Invesco QQQ Nasdaq 100 | ETF |
| SMH | 0.45% | VanEck Semiconductor | ETF |
| SPMO | -1.68% | S&P 500 Momentum | ETF |
| XSMO | -9.45% | Invesco Small cap Momentum | ETF |
| XMMO | -8.61% | Invesco Midcap Momentum | ETF |
| FSLVX | -5.76% | Fidelity Large Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FSMVX | -7.72% | Fidelity Mid Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FCPVX | -7.16% | Fidelity Small Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| OBMCX | -6.40% | Oberweis Micro-Cap | stock mutual fund |
| FBGRX | 1.31% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund |
| AGGH | -0.62% | Simplify Aggregate Bond | ETF Income Fund |
| BUCK | 0.37% | Simplify Stable Income | ETF Income Fund |
| CDX | -2.13% | Simplify High Income | ETF Income Fund |
| MTBA | -0.93% | Simplify Mortgage Bond | ETF Income Fund |
| CFRAX | 0.58% | Catalyst floating rate | income mutual fund |
| EIFAX | 0.58% | Eaton Vance floating rate | income mutual fund |
| FFRAX | 0.22% | Fidelity floating rate | income mutual fund |
| RNDLX | -1.27% | RiverNorth Strategic | income mutual fund |
| FAGIX | -1.45% | Fidelity Capital & Income | income mutual fund |
| Starwood REIT, class D | 0.71% | Dec | real estate investment trust |
| Blackstone REIT, class I | -1.10% | Dec | real estate investment trust |
| Fidelity Credit Fd, class I | 1.19% | Nov* | private lending trust |
| Blackstone Credit Fd, class I | 0.70% | Dec | private lending trust |
| Blackrock Credit Fd, class I | 0.97% | Nov* | private lending trust |
| KIP, Kay Income Partners LP | 0.56% | Dec | private mortgage |
(Courtesy Morningstar Workstation)
* 1-month reporting lag