“Sometimes what’s up is down and what’s down is up” … quote sometimes attributed to Alice In Wonderland by Lewis Carroll
“Stock market rout picks up steam with recession warnings blaring” … Yahoo Finance Mar 10, 2025
“The stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions” … MIT Professor Paul Samuelson 1982
Where Are We, End of Feb 2025?
Are We Headed for a Recession? Or Bear Market?
All I can offer is an opinion. I don’t feel that the economy is teetering on the brink, but the stock market is widely considered to be very highly valued – meaning that a decline of 10 – 20% would not be unthinkable. However, selling and knowing when to return is difficult – which is why I say that a move to a more conservative posture would be fine if you will be comfortable staying with that for a while.
Changes to the KII Website
I mentioned last month that all the clients will have password protected folders, where you will go to see your investment results and documentation about your account, our relationship and our conversations. I tried hard to make it available by today but there is still some debugging going on. Once again, I think you will like and appreciate the changes!
Following is the performance of our funds and the market indexes in Feb:
| Feb-25 | |||
| S&P 500 | -1.30% | ||
| Nasdaq (technology) | -3.91% | ||
| Dow 30 | -1.39% | ||
| NYSE Composite | 0.31% | ||
| Russell 2000 (small companies) | -5.35% | ||
| US Aggregate Bond | 2.16% | ||
| SVOL | -1.65% | Simplify Volatility Premium | ETF |
| FBCG | -5.19% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | ETF |
| NOBL | 1.66% | Dividend Aristocrats | ETF |
| RSP | -0.58% | Invesco S&P Equal Wt | ETF |
| VBR | -3.67% | Vanguard Small Cap Value | ETF |
| TMFC | -2.01% | Motley Fool 100 | ETF |
| QQQ | -2.70% | Invesco QQQ Nasdaq 100 | ETF |
| SPMO | -0.24% | S&P 500 Momentum | ETF |
| XSMO | -5.74% | Invesco Small cap Momentum | ETF |
| XMMO | -6.47% | Invesco Midcap Momentum | ETF |
| FSLVX | -0.77% | Fidelity Large Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FSMVX | -3.43% | Fidelity Mid Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FCPVX | -4.99% | Fidelity Small Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| OBMCX | -7.44% | Oberweis Micro-Cap | stock mutual fund |
| FBGRX | -4.97% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund |
| AGGH | 2.46% | Simplify Aggregate Bond | ETF Income Fund |
| BUCK | 0.59% | Simplify Stable Income | ETF Income Fund |
| CDX | 3.05% | Simplify High Income | ETF Income Fund |
| MTBA | 1.69% | Simplify Mortgage Bond | ETF Income Fund |
| TUA | 2.44% | Simplify Term Treas Bond | ETF Income Fund |
| CFRAX | 0.10% | Catalyst floating rate | income mutual fund |
| EIFAX | 0.10% | Eaton Vance floating rate | income mutual fund |
| FFRAX | 0.10% | Fidelity floating rate | income mutual fund |
| RNDLX | 1.89% | RiverNorth Strategic | income mutual fund |
| FAGIX | -0.83% | Fidelity Capital & Income | income mutual fund |
| Starwood REIT, class D | 0.20% | Jan* | real estate investment trust |
| Blackstone REIT, class I | 0.80% | Jan* | real estate investment trust |
| Fidelity Credit Fd, class I | 1.11% | Jan* | private lending trust |
| Blackstone Credit Fd, class I | 0.90% | Jan* | private lending trust |
| Blackrock Credit Fd, class I | 0.90% | Jan* | private lending trust |
(Courtesy Morningstar Workstation)
* 1-month reporting lag
We should talk if you would like to review exactly where you stand or if we should consider a change. I am available at your convenience. I have Skype video and Google Meet in case you would like to do a video conference. Also, please consult your Fidelity statement for advisor fee information.