“Wall Street Is Getting More Anxious About Long-Term Inflation” … Wall St Journal, 5/12/2026
“The next Fed chair wants lower rates. The data might make that impossible” … Wall St Journal, 5/18/2026
“There are fundamental reasons behind the [Stock Market] comeback, including a resilient U.S. economy that isn’t as reliant on oil as in the past, as well as energy affecting just a small part of company margins” … CNBC, 5/12/2026
Where Are We, End of April 2026?
I delayed this newsletter a bit, pending final outcome of the China summit. Unfortunately, there was nothing to shake the markets.
What has changed in the past month is just how sharply the stock market has risen. The fact is, the market believes that a resolution to the Iran war is just around the corner – and along with that, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The CNBC quote references the strength and resilience of the economy. Looking behind the curtain, it is still technology driving the bus. I note that the Nasdaq index rose over 15%, while the “dividend aristocrats” (well established companies with well established dividend histories) rose only 2.25%. YTD, the difference is even more dramatic. I suppose if you’re reading this newsletter 10 years from now, I’ll still be talking about seemingly crazy outcomes.
Inflation is rising, driven by energy costs, of course – but also tariffs. Where the stock market is concerned, it seems that artificial intelligence and expectations of enhanced profitability (… and fear of missing out, FOMO), carry more weight than inflation or war. There is a potential conundrum, though, because the big step up in energy prices negatively affects the economy at the same time as it raises inflation – meaning if the Fed raises rates, it threatens the economy, while if it lowers rates, it raises inflation.
Affiliation with Sub-Advisor
I am still in the process of working through the details of an arrangement with Astoria Advisors, https://www.astoriaadvisors.com/, a multi-billion-dollar advisory firm. Some of you may recognize the name of their founder, John Davi, since he appears on CNN FN from time to time. I will be providing more details and a formal introduction in the coming few weeks. They would become my sub-advisor and stand ready to provide business continuity if I become unable to work.
Following is the performance of the market indexes and our funds in April:
| Apr-26 | |||
| S&P 500 | 10.42% | ||
| Nasdaq (technology) | 15.29% | ||
| Dow 30 | 7.14% | ||
| Morningstar US Mkt (all stocks) | 10.35% | ||
| Morningstar US Small Companies | 7.65% | ||
| 2 year Treasury YIELD | 3.90% | ||
| 5 year Treasury YIELD | 3.88% | ||
| FBCG | 16.62% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock ETF |
| SPMO | 19.34% | Invesco S&P 500 Momentum | stock ETF |
| XSMO | 14.10% | Invesco Small cap Momentum | stock ETF |
| XMMO | 10.21% | Invesco Midcap Momentum | stock ETF |
| TMFC | 12.85% | Motley Fool 100 | stock ETF |
| VBR | 6.98% | Vanguard Small Cap Value | stock ETF |
| RSP | 6.00% | Invesco S&P Equal Wt | stock ETF |
| NOBL | 2.25% | Dividend Aristocrats | stock ETF |
| NLR | 9.60% | Van Eck Nuclear | stock ETF |
| FBGRX | 16.06% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund |
| OBMCX | 23.13% | Oberweis Micro-Cap | stock mutual fund |
| FSLVX | 7.22% | Fidelity Large Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FSMVX | 11.68% | Fidelity Mid Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FCPVX | 13.59% | Fidelity Small Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| CPEFX | 3.33% | Cascade Private Capital | private equity mutual fund |
| BUCK | 0.53% | Simplify Stable Income | ETF Income Fund |
| BMACX | 0.66% | Blackstone Income Fund | income mutual fund |
| CCLFX | 0.78% | Cliffwater Corporate Lending | income mutual fund |
| CELFX | 0.84% | Cliffwater Enhanced Lending | income mutual fund |
| CFRAX | 1.18% | Catalyst floating rate | income mutual fund |
| EIFAX | 1.41% | Eaton Vance floating rate | income mutual fund |
| FFRAX | 1.19% | Fidelity floating rate | income mutual fund |
| RNDLX | 0.76% | RiverNorth Strategic | income mutual fund |
| FAGIX | 4.99% | Fidelity Capital & Income | income mutual fund |
| Starwood REIT, class I | 0.02% | Mar* | real estate investment trust |
| Blackstone REIT, class I | 0.05% | Mar* | real estate investment trust |
| Fidelity Credit Fd, class I | 0.11% | Mar* | private lending trust |
| Blackstone Credit Fd, class I | 0.00% | Mar* | private lending trust |
| Blackrock Credit Fd, class I | 0.78% | Mar* | private lending trust |
(Courtesy morningstar.com)
* 1-month reporting lag
Following are your April investment results:
We should talk if you would like to review exactly where you stand or if we should consider a change. I am available at your convenience. I have Google Meet and Zoom in case you would like to do a video conference. KII’s most recent ADV Part 2 Brochure and Privacy Policy are each available upon request. Also, please consult your Fidelity statement for advisor fee information.
Best,