“This divergence [between the S&P 500 and certain technical indicators] isn’t just a blip; it’s the longest divergence we’ve seen in recent memory… like when the weather at the beach looks fine but the locals pack up their umbrellas because they sense a storm coming.” … Sevens Report Technicals, September 11, 2025
“On Friday, the BLS [Bureau of Labor and Statistics] also revised its data for June to show that employment dropped by 13,000 jobs that month, marking the first time the economy suffered a net loss of jobs since 2020 … JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the latest jobs report from the Labor Department shows the economy is slowing..” …. The Hill, September 10, 2025
“The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday — its first reduction of 2025 — and projected two more cuts for the rest of this year.” …. Yahoo Finance, September 17, 2025
Where Are We, End of August 2025?
[…Sorry I’m late – I was away the week following Labor Day]. We are still in a bull market, watching record highs, especially in certain technology stocks. We await an understanding of how the stock market responds to falling interest rates, a slower economy (how much slower … still unknown) and eventual tariff effects. My personal feeling is that I get much more excited when values have tanked somewhat and stocks look more like a bargain than a stretch.
Historically, the Fed cuts rates to stimulate a slowing economy. The effect on the stock market may lag, but eventually much depends on whether a recession is coming. At this point, we’re watching. I don’t feel motivated to sell without more information.
In September, stocks rose (AGAIN) but the script flipped, meaning large tech companies rose the least and small companies rose the most. In fact, our bellwether funds, FBCG and SPMO, brought up the rear.
Dividends
Our dividend funds continue to throw off healthy dividends, helping people to live on income. Eventually, lower interest rates may reduce dividends somewhat, but for now we’re pushing 10% rates.
Following is the performance of our funds and the market indexes in August:
| Aug-25 | |||
| S&P 500 | 1.91% | ||
| Nasdaq (technology) | 1.58% | ||
| Dow 30 | 3.20% | ||
| Morningstar US Mkt (all stocks) | 2.03% | ||
| Morningstar US Small Companies | 4.43% | ||
| 2 year Treasury YIELD (9/11/25) | 3.54% | ||
| 5 year Treasury YIELD (9/11/25) | 3.60% | ||
| FBCG | 1.25% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock ETF |
| NOBL | 3.01% | Dividend Aristocrats | stock ETF |
| RSP | 2.72% | Invesco S&P Equal Wt | stock ETF |
| VBR | 5.31% | Vanguard Small Cap Value | stock ETF |
| TMFC | 1.66% | Motley Fool 100 | stock ETF |
| QQQ | 0.95% | Invesco QQQ Nasdaq 100 | stock ETF |
| SPMO | 0.68% | S&P 500 Momentum | stock ETF |
| XSMO | 6.80% | Invesco Small cap Momentum | stock ETF |
| XMMO | 0.66% | Invesco Midcap Momentum | stock ETF |
| FBGRX | 1.03% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund |
| OBMCX | 8.23% | Oberweis Micro-Cap | stock mutual fund |
| FSLVX | 3.17% | Fidelity Large Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FSMVX | 4.61% | Fidelity Mid Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FCPVX | 6.57% | Fidelity Small Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| BUCK | 1.91% | Simplify Stable Income | ETF Income Fund |
| CCLFX | 0.47% | Cliffwater Corporate Lending | income mutual fund |
| CELFX | 0.82% | Cliffwater Enhanced Lending | income mutual fund |
| CFRAX | 0.53% | Catalyst floating rate | income mutual fund |
| EIFAX | 0.44% | Eaton Vance floating rate | income mutual fund |
| FFRAX | 0.51% | Fidelity floating rate | income mutual fund |
| RNDLX | 1.32% | RiverNorth Strategic | income mutual fund |
| FAGIX | 1.06% | Fidelity Capital & Income | income mutual fund |
| Starwood REIT, class D | 0.00% | July* | real estate investment trust |
| Blackstone REIT, class I | 0.50% | July* | real estate investment trust |
| Fidelity Credit Fd, class I | 0.62% | July* | private lending trust |
| Blackstone Credit Fd, class I | 0.80% | July* | private lending trust |
| Blackrock Credit Fd, class I | 0.90% | July* | private lending trust |
(Courtesy morningstar.com)
* 1-month reporting lag
Following are your August investment results:
We should talk if you would like to review exactly where you stand or if we should consider a change. I am available at your convenience. I have Google Meet and Zoom in case you would like to do a video conference. Also, please consult your Fidelity statement for advisor fee information.
Best,