“The economy may have stuck the soft landing… Inflation is easing, jobs are holding up, and growth is solid. But declarations of victory feel premature”, … Wall St Journal 2/14/2026
“..institutions of all kinds get old. The Federal Reserve System is a great example … [being that it is designed to act slowly].”.…John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline, 2/7/2026
“…we question the prevailing wisdom that indiscriminately throwing money at [A.I.] is the right solution… [and] whether the risk/reward trade-off has been properly considered”, The Bahnsen Dividend Café, 2/13/2026
Where Are We, End of January 2026?
A.I. (artificial intelligence) should be a long-term deflationary force (like virtually all new technology), but it’s causing a truly immense infrastructure buildout (meaning chips, energy costs and data centers). Have you paid attention to your electricity bill? Add the costs of upgrading aging grids, supply chain disruptions, tariffs and extreme weather. Then imagine the Federal Reserve System trying to figure out interest rates based on unemployment and inflation.
It would obviously be such a victory for the markets if a recession doesn’t occur. There is a topping action going on right now, mid-February and it would not be surprising if we finally get a solid month of decline – we only had one such decline in all of 2025, rather than the more normal twice. I note that technology is the sector that most wants to correct.
In January, small company stocks soared, with Nasdaq (tech) stocks performing the worst. The bias away from tech and toward value and dividend payers is well deserved, providing some balance. This was a month where diversification paid. In fact, many of our more conservative accounts beat the averages straight up.
Following is the performance of the market indexes and our funds in January:
| Jan-26 | |||
| S&P 500 | 1.40% | ||
| Nasdaq (technology) | 0.95% | ||
| Dow 30 | 1.73% | ||
| Morningstar US Mkt (all stocks) | 1.42% | ||
| Morningstar US Small Companies | 3.82% | ||
| 2 year Treasury YIELD (9/11/25) | 3.47% | ||
| 5 year Treasury YIELD (9/11/25) | 3.61% | ||
| FBCG | -0.57% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock ETF |
| QQQ | 1.23% | Invesco QQQ Nasdaq 100 | stock ETF |
| SPMO | 0.46% | S&P 500 Momentum | stock ETF |
| XSMO | 5.89% | Invesco Small cap Momentum | stock ETF |
| XMMO | 1.31% | Invesco Midcap Momentum | stock ETF |
| TMFC | -0.95% | Motley Fool 100 | stock ETF |
| VBR | 5.34% | Vanguard Small Cap Value | stock ETF |
| RSP | 3.40% | Invesco S&P Equal Wt | stock ETF |
| NOBL | 5.67% | Dividend Aristocrats | stock ETF |
| NLR | 19.73% | Van Eck Nuclear | stock ETF |
| FBGRX | -0.09% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund |
| OBMCX | 5.71% | Oberweis Micro-Cap | stock mutual fund |
| FSLVX | 3.15% | Fidelity Large Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FSMVX | 5.75% | Fidelity Mid Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FCPVX | 4.90% | Fidelity Small Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| CPEFX | 1.04% | Cascade Private Capital | private equity mutual fund |
| BUCK | 0.57% | Simplify Stable Income | ETF Income Fund |
| CCLFX | 0.38% | Cliffwater Corporate Lending | income mutual fund |
| CELFX | 0.65% | Cliffwater Enhanced Lending | income mutual fund |
| CFRAX | -0.28% | Catalyst floating rate | income mutual fund |
| EIFAX | -0.33% | Eaton Vance floating rate | income mutual fund |
| FFRAX | 0.12% | Fidelity floating rate | income mutual fund |
| RNDLX | 0.41% | RiverNorth Strategic | income mutual fund |
| FAGIX | 1.63% | Fidelity Capital & Income | income mutual fund |
| Starwood REIT, class I | -0.47% | Dec* | real estate investment trust |
| Blackstone REIT, class I | 1.20% | Dec* | real estate investment trust |
| Fidelity Credit Fd, class I | 0.86% | Dec* | private lending trust |
| Blackstone Credit Fd, class I | 0.50% | Dec* | private lending trust |
| Blackrock Credit Fd, class I | 0.69% | Dec* | private lending trust |
(Courtesy morningstar.com)
* 1-month reporting lag
Following are your January investment results:
We should talk if you would like to review exactly where you stand or if we should consider a change. I am available at your convenience. I have Google Meet and Zoom in case you would like to do a video conference. Also, please consult your Fidelity statement for advisor fee information.
Best,