“When you come to a fork in the road, take it”….. Yogi Berra
“Success in investing doesn’t correlate with IQ … what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing”…Warren Buffet
“The markets are clearly strong, so we need to stay invested”…. Darrell Kay, June 2020 newsletter
Where are we, at the end of July 2020?
I understand the concern that clients have about the economy, the markets, the deficit, the politics, the virus and all the unknowns. However, the markets will very likely tell us when to back away. It’s not the best answer, but it’s the only answer. The internal supply and demand statistics do not lie – they demonstrate that buyers have the upper hand for the foreseeable future.
Our funds are well into the upper end of the range of returns of the indexes (see below). Our biotech fund is the only exception (up 9.82% YTD however). Our ATAC rotation fund ranked #1 out of 173 funds for the 5 year period ended 7/31/20. It is up 58.59% YTD through 7/31. When the markets DO eventually turn, there is some basis for the expectation that this fund will rotate away from stocks – it’s another arrow in my quiver. Concerns about our REITS are understandable, but as you see from the returns summaries (see below), they are recovering at their own pace.
Meantime understand that we are ALWAYS at a fork in the road with our investments and, as Yogi famously said, we are definitely going to take it.
How Did the Markets and our Funds Do in July 2020?
The below numbers are courtesy Morningstar Workstation:
| Jul-20 | |||
| S&P 500 | 5.64% | ||
| Nasdaq (technology) | 6.85% | ||
| Dow | 2.51% | ||
| NYSE Composite | 4.98% | ||
| Russell 2000 (small co) | 2.77% | ||
| US Aggregate Bond Index | 1.14% | ||
| ONEQ | 6.64% | Fidelity Nasdaq | Fidelity commission free ETF |
| FTEC | 6.06% | Fidelity Info Tech | Fidelity commission free ETF |
| ATACX | 10.69% | Rotational Timing Fund | stock mutual fund |
| FBIOX | -3.65% | Fidelity Biotech | stock mutual fund |
| FCNTX | 7.17% | Fidelity Contra Fund | stock mutual fund |
| FSMEX | 10.99% | Fidelity Medical Technology | stock mutual fund |
| FSCSX | 3.82% | Fidelity Software/IT | stock mutual fund |
| FBGRX | 7.79% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund |
| PSGAX | 6.18% | Virtus KAR Small-Cap Gr | stock mutual fund |
| FKDNX | 8.55% | Franklin Dynatech | stock mutual fund |
| WMICX | 6.22% | Wasatch Micro Cap | stock mutual fund |
| LCGNX | 6.93% | William Blair Large Cap | stock mutual fund |
| CFRAX | 0.99% | Catalyst floating rate | fixed income mutual fund |
| EIFAX | 1.91% | Eaton Vance floating rate | fixed income mutual fund |
| FFRAX | 1.87% | Fidelity floating rate | fixed income mutual fund |
| GIREX | 1.41% | Griffin real estate int rate | fixed income mutual fund |
| RNDLX | 1.83% | RiverNorth Strategic | fixed income mutual fund |
| FAGIX | 4.22% | Fidelity Capital & Income | fixed income mutual fund |
| LENDX | 1.33% | Stone Ridge Alternative | peer to peer fixed return m.f. |
| Starwood REIT | 0.77% | June, 6 months | real estate investment trust |
| Blackstone REIT, class D | 2.02% | June, 6 months | real estate investment trust |
| Prime Meridian Real Estate | 0.33% | June, 6 months | private peer to peer fixed return |
| KIP, Kay Income Partners LP | 0.56% | July | private mortgage fund |
Your investment return(s) for July 2020 was/were as follows:
We should talk if you would like to review exactly where you stand or if we should consider a change. I am available at your convenience. I have Skype video in case you would like to do a video conference.
Best,