“At the current premium, the market is not providing any margin of safety to compensate investors for any of the myriad risks on the horizon …. we expect the rate of economic growth will decelerate sequentially over the course of 2025”…. Morningstar Market Outlook, August 5, 2025
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” …. John Kenneth Galbraith
Where Are We, End of July 2025?
We are still hanging with a bull market, although it is dominated by A.I. The New York Stock Exchange Composite index was about breakeven, as was the Dow. But thanks to a few stocks, the tech index rose over 3% and Fidelity Blue Chip Growth (thank you) climbed over 4%. The dividend aristocrats rose about 1%.
Of course, even though the markets seem irrational, remember the old saying: “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. My personal guess is we correct – possibly substantially – by or before the beginning of Q4. It may even begin here in August.
Dividends
Our dividend funds continue to serve us well.
Following is the performance of our funds and the market indexes in July:
| Jul-25 | |||
| S&P 500 | 2.17% | ||
| Nasdaq (technology) | 3.70% | ||
| Dow 30 | 0.08% | ||
| NYSE Composite | 0.14% | ||
| Russell 2000 (small companies) | 1.68% | ||
| 2 year Treasury YIELD | 3.70% | ||
| 5 year Treasury YIELD | 3.83% | ||
| FBCG | 4.37% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | ETF |
| NOBL | 1.06% | Dividend Aristocrats | ETF |
| RSP | 1.04% | Invesco S&P Equal Wt | ETF |
| VBR | 1.67% | Vanguard Small Cap Value | ETF |
| TMFC | 2.65% | Motley Fool 100 | ETF |
| QQQ | 2.42% | Invesco QQQ Nasdaq 100 | ETF |
| SPMO | 2.86% | S&P 500 Momentum | ETF |
| XSMO | -0.04% | Invesco Small cap Momentum | ETF |
| XMMO | 1.39% | Invesco Midcap Momentum | ETF |
| FBGRX | 4.58% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund |
| OBMCX | 3.69% | Oberweis Micro-Cap | stock mutual fund |
| FSLVX | 0.67% | Fidelity Large Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FSMVX | 0.85% | Fidelity Mid Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FCPVX | 0.85% | Fidelity Small Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| BUCK | 0.47% | Simplify Stable Income | ETF Income Fund |
| CCLFX | 0.85% | Cliffwater Corporate Lending | income mutual fund |
| CELFX | 0.61% | Cliffwater Enhanced Lending | income mutual fund |
| CFRAX | 0.81% | Catalyst floating rate | income mutual fund |
| EIFAX | 0.45% | Eaton Vance floating rate | income mutual fund |
| FFRAX | 0.48% | Fidelity floating rate | income mutual fund |
| RNDLX | 0.30% | RiverNorth Strategic | income mutual fund |
| FAGIX | 0.01% | Fidelity Capital & Income | income mutual fund |
| Starwood REIT, class D | 0.00% | July* | real estate investment trust |
| Blackstone REIT, class I | 0.50% | July* | real estate investment trust |
| Fidelity Credit Fd, class I | 1.49% | June* | private lending trust |
| Blackstone Credit Fd, class I | 0.90% | June* | private lending trust |
| Blackrock Credit Fd, class I | 1.62% | June* | private lending trust |
(Courtesy morningstar.com)
* 1-month reporting lag
Following are your July investment results:
We should talk if you would like to review exactly where you stand or if we should consider a change. I am available at your convenience. I have Google Meet and Zoom in case you would like to do a video conference. Also, please consult your Fidelity statement for advisor fee information.
Best,