“Mr. Trump should give a globally televised address announcing to the world that the U.S is ready to drop its tariffs to zero tomorrow on any nation that does the same” … A Win-Win Exit Strategy, Wall St Journal 4/7/2025
“Interest rates soared [this week] as large pools of capital are selling U.S. assets and taking their money home” … Yahoo Finance 4/11/2025
Where Are We, End of March 2025?
The last month has made heads spin and caused a rout in the stock market. I’ve been reminded all week of things hammered home to me while studying economics in business school: 1) government actions carry unexpected consequences (call that collateral damage), 2) tariffs are a tax on people in the country imposing them and 3) a trading deficit is simply just the reciprocal of an investment surplus – meaning one country holds goods and the other holds cash – in the form of bonds, currency and other assets – and/or those dollars (in this case) may be exchanged at rates that reflect exactly the value of American goods around the world.
A stock market plunge would not directly cause a recession, but a shock to the economy could have that effect. Keeping a lot of consequential actions up in the air for months is a good way to make it happen. The stock market is “making its point”. My concern is that a number of factors are converging to make this a down year, or at best marginally up. For starters, the stock market has been almost straight up for 2 ½ years – and don’t we wish the stock market always moved straight up? Further, there may be some economic damage taking place – at least in the short term. Companies make plans, change plans and cancel plans, all based on what they see in the present. Companies and markets hate uncertainty. Economic disruptions and dislocations are not “elastic” – they don’t spring back like a bouncing ball – the damage is more like an impact to your car.
Are we going lower? The disruption is serious, causing real momentum to the downside. In order to reverse momentum, there needs to be an even stronger push in the other direction, and I just don’t see that at present. However, even in a bad, bear market year, there are strong upward, counter trend movements that give the opportunity to reallocate, if that is the plan.
For those of you who fear the downside, here are things to think about: bear market plunges always recover eventually and selling brings on the difficulty of knowing when to buy back. Further, if you would buy a fund today with cash (and perhaps one would not), then it makes no sense to sell that fund for cash. NEVERTHELESS, I AM willing to introduce market timing into our relationship, within some portion of your stock fund holdings, assuming we have a clear understanding that there is just no assurance that I can outperform holding. Let’s discuss it.
The web and reporting changes that I’ve been planning are on hold because of the demands on my time caused by the markets. Also, I am attaching for your information my 2025 regulatory filing.
Following is the performance of our funds and the market indexes in Mar:
| Mar-25 | |||
| S&P 500 | -5.63% | ||
| Nasdaq (technology) | -8.14% | ||
| Dow 30 | -4.06% | ||
| NYSE Composite | -2.87% | ||
| Russell 2000 (small companies) | -6.81% | ||
| US Aggregate Bond | 0.23% | ||
| SVOL | -1.65% | Simplify Volatility Premium | ETF |
| FBCG | -11.06% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | ETF |
| NOBL | -1.35% | Dividend Aristocrats | ETF |
| RSP | -3.40% | Invesco S&P Equal Wt | ETF |
| VBR | -5.19% | Vanguard Small Cap Value | ETF |
| TMFC | -7.24% | Motley Fool 100 | ETF |
| QQQ | -7.59% | Invesco QQQ Nasdaq 100 | ETF |
| SPMO | -7.11% | S&P 500 Momentum | ETF |
| XSMO | -3.77% | Invesco Small cap Momentum | ETF |
| XMMO | -6.65% | Invesco Midcap Momentum | ETF |
| FSLVX | -2.69% | Fidelity Large Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FSMVX | -4.68% | Fidelity Mid Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FCPVX | -4.81% | Fidelity Small Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| OBMCX | -7.61% | Oberweis Micro-Cap | stock mutual fund |
| FBGRX | -10.52% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund |
| AGGH | 0.66% | Simplify Aggregate Bond | ETF Income Fund |
| BUCK | 0.94% | Simplify Stable Income | ETF Income Fund |
| CDX | 0.70% | Simplify High Income | ETF Income Fund |
| MTBA | 0.24% | Simplify Mortgage Bond | ETF Income Fund |
| TUA | 0.97% | Simplify Short Treas Bond | ETF Income Fund |
| CFRAX | -0.40% | Catalyst floating rate | income mutual fund |
| EIFAX | -0.91% | Eaton Vance floating rate | income mutual fund |
| FFRAX | -0.48% | Fidelity floating rate | income mutual fund |
| RNDLX | -0.38% | RiverNorth Strategic | income mutual fund |
| FAGIX | -2.36% | Fidelity Capital & Income | income mutual fund |
| Starwood REIT, class D | -0.28% | Feb* | real estate investment trust |
| Blackstone REIT, class I | 0.60% | Feb* | real estate investment trust |
| Fidelity Credit Fd, class I | 0.52% | Feb* | private lending trust |
| Blackstone Credit Fd, class I | 0.60% | Feb* | private lending trust |
| Blackrock Credit Fd, class I | 0.40% | Feb* | private lending trust |
(Courtesy Morningstar Workstation)
* 1-month reporting lag
Following are your March investment results:
We should talk if you would like to review exactly where you stand or if we should consider a change. I am available at your convenience. I have Google Meet in case you would like to do a video conference. Also, please consult your Fidelity statement for advisor fee information.