“Every day they don’t lose, they win, and every day we don’t win, we lose” [Iran War].…Wall St Journal, 4/10/2026
“S&P 500 earnings for 2026 are projected to show strong double-digit growth, with estimates largely centering around a 15% –17% increase” … [A / I overview] based on Barclays, UBS and other fact sets, 4/9/2026
“Inflation pushed to 3.3% in March … and may only partially capture future outcomes … Yahoo Finance, 4/10/2026
Where Are We, End of March 2026?
The stock market wants very much to rise, based on economic and corporate growth, and various other factors contributing to a positive outlook. The problem is very simple: the Iran War and the crisis of the oil bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz. The future outcome is just too hard to predict. The escalating cost of oil is inflationary (as is the tariff landscape) and puts pressure on the economy. This is a conundrum with a substantial ripple effect.
Stock market indices were down across the board, averaging over 5%. We avoided much of that decline through diversification and fund selection. I also sold a certain percentage of stock holdings very early in the month, based on vulnerabilities I discussed in the previous newsletters.
Annual Disclosure Brochure plus Privacy Policy
Please find attached Kay Investments’ annual disclosure brochure and privacy policy.
Affiliation with Sub-Advisor
Many of you know that I was hospitalized in February after an accident during an otherwise simple surgery on the 18th. Among other things, this experience made clear that we would all benefit from a backup firm who could serve during any downtime. I am in the process of working through the details of an arrangement with Astoria Advisors, https://www.astoriaadvisors.com/, a multi-billion-dollar advisory firm. Some of you may recognize the name of their founder, John Davi, since he appears on CNN FN from time to time. I will be providing more details and a formal introduction in the coming few weeks.
Following is the performance of the market indexes and our funds in March:
| Mar-26 | |||
| S&P 500 | -5.09% | ||
| Nasdaq (technology) | -4.75% | ||
| Dow 30 | -5.38% | ||
| Morningstar US Mkt (all stocks) | -5.11% | ||
| Morningstar US Small Companies | -6.22% | ||
| 2 year Treasury YIELD | 3.94% | ||
| 5 year Treasury YIELD | 4.06% | ||
| FBCG | -5.43% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock ETF |
| SPMO | -5.90% | S&P 500 Momentum | stock ETF |
| XSMO | -4.60% | Invesco Small cap Momentum | stock ETF |
| XMMO | -3.18% | Invesco Midcap Momentum | stock ETF |
| TMFC | -4.93% | Motley Fool 100 | stock ETF |
| VBR | -4.95% | Vanguard Small Cap Value | stock ETF |
| RSP | -5.97% | Invesco S&P Equal Wt | stock ETF |
| NOBL | -7.04% | Dividend Aristocrats | stock ETF |
| NLR | -10.17% | Van Eck Nuclear | stock ETF |
| FBGRX | -4.83% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund |
| OBMCX | -1.60% | Oberweis Micro-Cap | stock mutual fund |
| FSLVX | -4.82% | Fidelity Large Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FSMVX | -6.69% | Fidelity Mid Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FCPVX | -6.38% | Fidelity Small Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| CPEFX | -0.29% | Cascade Private Capital | private equity mutual fund |
| BUCK | 0.13% | Simplify Stable Income | ETF Income Fund |
| CCLFX | 0.29% | Cliffwater Corporate Lending | income mutual fund |
| CELFX | 0.73% | Cliffwater Enhanced Lending | income mutual fund |
| CFRAX | 0.74% | Catalyst floating rate | income mutual fund |
| EIFAX | 0.06% | Eaton Vance floating rate | income mutual fund |
| FFRAX | 0.62% | Fidelity floating rate | income mutual fund |
| RNDLX | -1.29% | RiverNorth Strategic | income mutual fund |
| FAGIX | -1.57% | Fidelity Capital & Income | income mutual fund |
| Starwood REIT, class I | 0.01% | Feb* | real estate investment trust |
| Blackstone REIT, class I | 0.06% | Feb* | real estate investment trust |
| Fidelity Credit Fd, class I | 0.67% | Feb* | private lending trust |
| Blackstone Credit Fd, class I | -0.40% | Feb* | private lending trust |
| Blackrock Credit Fd, class I | -0.70% | Feb* | private lending trust |
(Courtesy morningstar.com)
* 1-month reporting lag
Following are your March investment results:
We should talk if you would like to review exactly where you stand or if we should consider a change. I am available at your convenience. I have Google Meet and Zoom in case you would like to do a video conference. Also, please consult your Fidelity statement for advisor fee information.
Best,