“I don’t have FOMO, (fear of missing out),” says [wary investor]. “I have FOGI: fear of getting in.” … Why This Stock Market Makes So Many of Us Want to Scream, Wall St Journal, May 30, 2025
“Beijing’s agreement to temporarily restore rare-earth licenses was one of the key breakthroughs in the latest round of intense trade talks in London.” Wall St Journal, June 11, 2025
Where Are We, End of May 2025?
The tariffs go up; the tariffs go down. Do you perceive the comforting, gentle waves of a rocking chair, or do they make you a little seasick? Wars are tough and people get hurt. The thing that most people don’t understand is that even if every tariff on God’s earth disappeared tomorrow (would be my fervent wish), there would still be trade deficits between different countries. There is NO way it can ever, ever be avoided – and where tariffs DO exist, they are paid by the buyers in the country that imposed them.
May was a great month for stocks and especially our holdings. Both our momentum fund (SPMO) and the Fidelity Blue Chip made over 10% for the month. For the year, the markets have regained all the losses we experienced into early April. As of today, a week into June, we remain in bull market mode and up for the year. HOWEVER, what’s troubling is that “value” holdings did not make as much. As you can see, getting out of stocks earlier would now put us in the position of deciding if this run up is honest or fake. I have further thoughts on this below.
Two New Investment Opportunities
I’m now tracking the Cliffwater Enhanced Lending Fund (CELFX), which is a mutual fund, with quarterly liquidity. You can read more about it on their website: https://www.cliffwaterfunds.com/celfx. You will see the monthly returns, every month going back 4 years. Of course, 4 years is not necessarily as long as you think, but it did make money every month in 2022 (bear market year), and it distributes dividends currently over 10%. The downside to the fund is you can only sell the fund quarterly.
I am offering to put a portion of your portfolio into a timing strategy that I will manage. The objective is to dodge downturns and try to make more money in up cycles. I need to hear from you, in order to utilize this strategy inside your account.
Following is the performance of our funds and the market indexes in May:
| May-25 | |||
| S&P 500 | 6.29% | ||
| Nasdaq (technology) | 9.65% | ||
| Dow 30 | 4.16% | ||
| NYSE Composite | 3.73% | ||
| Russell 2000 (small companies) | 5.34% | ||
| US Aggregate Bond | -1.03% | ||
| FBCG | 10.75% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | ETF |
| NOBL | 2.21% | Dividend Aristocrats | ETF |
| RSP | 4.31% | Invesco S&P Equal Wt | ETF |
| VBR | 5.00% | Vanguard Small Cap Value | ETF |
| TMFC | 8.11% | Motley Fool 100 | ETF |
| QQQ | 9.18% | Invesco QQQ Nasdaq 100 | ETF |
| SPMO | 11.40% | S&P 500 Momentum | ETF |
| XSMO | 6.70% | Invesco Small cap Momentum | ETF |
| XMMO | 7.78% | Invesco Midcap Momentum | ETF |
| FSLVX | 4.28% | Fidelity Large Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FSMVX | 5.46% | Fidelity Mid Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FCPVX | 4.23% | Fidelity Small Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| OBMCX | 6.40% | Oberweis Micro-Cap | stock mutual fund |
| FBGRX | 10.21% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund |
| AGGH | -2.28% | Simplify Aggregate Bond | ETF Income Fund |
| BUCK | 0.00% | Simplify Stable Income | ETF Income Fund |
| CDX | 1.92% | Simplify High Income | ETF Income Fund |
| MTBA | -0.36% | Simplify Mortgage Bond | ETF Income Fund |
| TUA | -2.89% | Simplify Short Treas Bond | ETF Income Fund |
| CELFX | 1.47% | Cliffwater Enhanced Lending | income mutual fund |
| CFRAX | 1.58% | Catalyst floating rate | income mutual fund |
| EIFAX | 1.93% | Eaton Vance floating rate | income mutual fund |
| FFRAX | 1.74% | Fidelity floating rate | income mutual fund |
| RNDLX | 0.07% | RiverNorth Strategic | income mutual fund |
| FAGIX | 3.03% | Fidelity Capital & Income | income mutual fund |
| Starwood REIT, class D | -0.31% | Apr | real estate investment trust |
| Blackstone REIT, class I | 0.20% | Apr | real estate investment trust |
| Fidelity Credit Fd, class I | -0.20% | Apr | private lending trust |
| Blackstone Credit Fd, class I | 0.60% | Apr | private lending trust |
| Blackrock Credit Fd, class I | -0.32% | Apr | private lending trust |
(Courtesy Morningstar Workstation)
* 1-month reporting lag
Following are your May investment results:
We should talk if you would like to review exactly where you stand or if we should consider a change. I am available at your convenience. I have Google Meet in case you would like to do a video conference. Also, please consult your Fidelity statement for advisor fee information.