“‘The Fed Is Increasingly Torn Over a December Rate Cut…Officials are fractured over which poses the greater threat—persistent inflation or a sluggish labor market”. Wall St Journal 11/11/2025
“For some analysts the S&P 500 might’ve already notched its last high for the year… some “ugly” technical signals are cause for concern. Among them: the number of Nasdaq Composite components hitting 52-week lows outnumbers those hitting highs.”.…Yahoo Finance, 11/18/2025
Where Are We, End of October 2025?
I’m not going to belabor the disparity in returns across the market. When the small company stocks and funds, the “equal weight S&P 500” and then dividend “aristocrats”, are in the red but a certain few stocks at the top are making money, one MIGHT be reminded of how it looks when a ship sinks. Of course, no one should complain too much when the tide has been rising so much and for so long. Every year there is at least one, but often at least two, down cycles measured in weeks. We did already have one such cycle in March extending into April. It looks like another one may be starting now. Of course, I do have the benefit of 18 days already in November to judge.
My plan is to stay diversified, keep the plan healthy and keep dividends flowing. Unlike a real life sinking, with the stock market it’s more like a bathtub toy – you submerge it and it eventually pops back up.
Dividends
I’m repeating last month’s declaration: our dividend funds continue to throw off healthy dividends, helping people to live on income. Eventually, lower interest rates may reduce dividends somewhat, but for now the credit funds are mostly pushing 10% rates – even as their share prices drop somewhat. Share prices will always fluctuate.
Following is the performance of the market indexes and our funds in October:
| Oct-25 | |||
| S&P 500 | 2.27% | ||
| Nasdaq (technology) | 4.70% | ||
| Dow 30 | 2.51% | ||
| Morningstar US Mkt (all stocks) | 2.14% | ||
| Morningstar US Small Companies | 0.17% | ||
| 2 year Treasury YIELD (9/11/25) | 3.60% | ||
| 5 year Treasury YIELD (9/11/25) | 3.72% | ||
| FBCG | 3.75% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock ETF |
| NOBL | -1.43% | Dividend Aristocrats | stock ETF |
| RSP | -0.93% | Invesco S&P Equal Wt | stock ETF |
| VBR | -1.05% | Vanguard Small Cap Value | stock ETF |
| TMFC | 2.98% | Motley Fool 100 | stock ETF |
| QQQ | 4.78% | Invesco QQQ Nasdaq 100 | stock ETF |
| SPMO | 0.53% | S&P 500 Momentum | stock ETF |
| XSMO | -2.62% | Invesco Small cap Momentum | stock ETF |
| XMMO | 0.58% | Invesco Midcap Momentum | stock ETF |
| NLR | 14.34% | Van Eck Nuclear | stock ETF |
| FBGRX | 3.75% | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth | stock mutual fund |
| OBMCX | 0.57% | Oberweis Micro-Cap | stock mutual fund |
| FSLVX | 0.61% | Fidelity Large Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FSMVX | -0.67% | Fidelity Mid Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| FCPVX | -2.22% | Fidelity Small Cap Value | stock mutual fund |
| CPEFX | 1.65% | Cascade Private Capital | private equity mutual fund |
| BUCK | 0.42% | Simplify Stable Income | ETF Income Fund |
| CCLFX | 0.56% | Cliffwater Corporate Lending | income mutual fund |
| CELFX | 0.97% | Cliffwater Enhanced Lending | income mutual fund |
| CFRAX | 0.34% | Catalyst floating rate | income mutual fund |
| EIFAX | 0.24% | Eaton Vance floating rate | income mutual fund |
| FFRAX | 0.25% | Fidelity floating rate | income mutual fund |
| RNDLX | 0.52% | RiverNorth Strategic | income mutual fund |
| FAGIX | 1.17% | Fidelity Capital & Income | income mutual fund |
| Starwood REIT, class I | -0.29% | Sep* | real estate investment trust |
| Blackstone REIT, class I | 0.80% | Oct | real estate investment trust |
| Fidelity Credit Fd, class I | 0.31% | Sep* | private lending trust |
| Blackstone Credit Fd, class I | 0.40% | Sep* | private lending trust |
| Blackrock Credit Fd, class I | 0.29% | Sep* | private lending trust |
(Courtesy morningstar.com)
* 1-month reporting lag
Following are your October investment results:
We should talk if you would like to review exactly where you stand or if we should consider a change. I am available at your convenience. I have Google Meet and Zoom in case you would like to do a video conference. Also, please consult your Fidelity statement for advisor fee information.
Best,