“This divergence [between the S&P 500 and certain technical indicators] isn’t just a blip; it’s the longest divergence we’ve seen in recent memory… like when the weather at the beach looks fine but the locals pack up their umbrellas because they sense a storm coming.” … Sevens Report Technicals, September 11, 2025 “On Friday, the Continue Reading >
July 2025 Investment Performance and Commentary
“At the current premium, the market is not providing any margin of safety to compensate investors for any of the myriad risks on the horizon …. we expect the rate of economic growth will decelerate sequentially over the course of 2025”…. Morningstar Market Outlook, August 5, 2025 “The only function of economic forecasting is to Continue Reading >
June 2025 Investment Performance and Commentary
“In 1981, adding $1 to the national debt was associated with a $3.15 increase in GDP. By 2024, that had fallen to only $0.81. That means government debt now—today—has a negative impact on GDP. Every new dollar of debt literally slows down the economy”…. John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline, June 28, 2025 “Congress is Continue Reading >
May 2025 Investment Performance and Commentary
“I don’t have FOMO, (fear of missing out),” says [wary investor]. “I have FOGI: fear of getting in.” … Why This Stock Market Makes So Many of Us Want to Scream, Wall St Journal, May 30, 2025 “Beijing’s agreement to temporarily restore rare-earth licenses was one of the key breakthroughs in the latest round of Continue Reading >
April 2025 Investment Performance and Commentary
““Why did the administration fold most of its tariff cards? Because another one-week [0.65%] increase in US long-term interest rates would break the world.” … Tension in the Sandpile, Thoughts from the Frontline by John Mauldin, 5/10/2025 Sorry, I’m a good week later than I wanted to be with this newsletter – I had a Continue Reading >
March 2025 Investment Performance and Commentary
“Mr. Trump should give a globally televised address announcing to the world that the U.S is ready to drop its tariffs to zero tomorrow on any nation that does the same” … A Win-Win Exit Strategy, Wall St Journal 4/7/2025 “Interest rates soared [this week] as large pools of capital are selling U.S. assets and Continue Reading >
September 2022 Performance and Investment Commentary
“…the number of stocks in deep bear markets, 30% or more below their highs, reached ever greater levels last week. If a market is on the mend, or even about to turn higher, this figure should contract, not expand” ― Lowry’s Institutional Research Analysis 10/07/2022 “…the weight of evidence, does not yet support the beginnings Continue Reading >
August 2022 Performance and Investment Commentary
“Smooth Seas Do Not Make Skillful Sailors” ― African Proverb “A good head and a good heart are always a formidable combination.” – Nelson Mandela Current State of the Markets? In the last newsletter, I talked about whether the June market lows would be the final bottom. We still don’t know the answer, but stocks Continue Reading >
July 2022 Performance and Investment Commentary
“The truth is rarely pure and never simple.” ― Oscar Wilde, The Importance of Being Earnest “Politicians are like diapers, they need to be changed often, and for the same reasons.” – Mark Twain The Stock Market: Is the Decline Over With? This is what everyone wants to know, along with questions about inflation, recession, Continue Reading >
May 2022 Investment Performance and Commentary
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money” – Milton Friedman “We don’t have a global inflation problem… China, Japan and Switzerland also face elevated oil prices, supply-chain problems and fallout from the war Continue Reading >
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